Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 62079.450189 65678.928435 69281.913681 73156.222734 77201.647623 81298.309188 85757.632874
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 56190.916506 61677.402768 67327.103826 73570.776155 80268.479726 87228.560739 94999.064241
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 51777.304264 58517.043457 65614.066319 73626.105288 82400.964666 91700.447028 102282.241514
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 48563.651666 56248.834166 64493.939423 73967.647569 84521.291480 95885.714438 109016.830259
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 45764.309591 54172.379154 63342.859375 74043.609208 86141.354566 99348.602531 114810.179021
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 44021.685900 53121.473100 63191.343758 75100.981914 88738.882590 103804.729069 121641.053717
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 41805.156454 51382.324166 62127.726466 74999.252063 89916.887446 106579.491939 126512.676999
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 40578.773963 50702.847782 62202.649710 76134.405245 92452.901589 110857.662378 133075.938095
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 39261.959227 49836.224287 61989.285649 76871.045701 94477.429703 114516.037255 138912.888348
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 37670.163735 48562.044328 61225.079212 76894.121892 95612.526319 117104.494813 143485.121807
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 36131.261859 47281.816006 60390.398396 76774.188923 96528.510234 119399.859110 147691.305238
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35346.441321 46882.280520 60579.460704 77852.624377 98851.139371 123342.875848 153845.451261
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34443.658132 46313.348416 60549.479592 78664.527553 100868.581626 126957.638192 159670.071094
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33391.344625 45517.108812 60207.285440 79068.007725 102375.241990 129959.861798 164778.172416
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32235.894475 44545.609119 59608.360971 79119.273546 103424.321705 132395.333017 169202.016098
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31298.990693 43817.002323 59280.772518 79479.499189 104832.432396 135255.090612 174141.801463
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30289.189945 42956.799223 58753.846413 79559.638438 105870.107750 137649.764457 178513.737189
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29805.553332 42763.333437 59058.741767 80679.308162 108200.997646 141636.485478 184855.172342
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28810.486075 41860.306287 58422.093036 80571.573356 108967.627709 143680.389596 188802.309292
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28429.578984 41760.081461 58812.016540 81773.489232 111390.287372 147787.972145 195326.475747
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27892.465949 41429.467205 58884.981980 82553.345907 113270.229478 151222.153685 201028.943868
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 27071.903216 40687.431332 58393.654080 82577.774423 114167.189798 153416.008761 205183.264881
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 26229.205898 39888.926925 57803.644234 82450.811535 114851.691474 155331.850504 208987.316506